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Question

  2002年伊始，美元对各主要货币开始贬值，截止到2002年12月20日，美元对欧元贬值达15%，对日元贬值达8%。美元贬值有深刻的政治经济背景，但最根本的原因在于美国持续多年的大规模贸易逆差所造成的贬值压力。美国贸易逆差规模之大已经使其经济格局发生了重大变化。关注美国的贸易逆差问题，对于了解未来美元的走势和美国对外政治经济政策的变化具有十分重要的战略意义。
一、美国贸易逆差的历史及现状
 
“二战”后美国的贸易逆差最早出现于1968年，在70年代虽然经历了石油危机的冲击，并从1976年开始出现持续到现在的贸易逆差，但直到1983年，美国的贸易逆差问题才成为美国朝野和世界各国关注的焦点，才被当成一个“问题”来讨论。
1983年美国最突出的问题是对外投资的净收入回流弥补不了对外贸易的逆差，商品和服务贸易逆差从1982年的242亿美元上升至578亿美元，而对外投资的净收入从1982年的352亿美元仅增加到364亿美元。美国从此由一个资本净流出国变为一个资本净流入国。此后，美国贸易逆差持续扩大，1987年达到1517亿美元。1988年美国的贸易逆差开始下降，到1991年，逆差又回到311亿美元的水平。但从1992年开始，其贸易逆差又呈扩大趋势。1993年和1994年贸易逆差以年均约300亿美元的速度扩大，1994年逆差达967亿美元。此后三年逆差缓慢增大，1998年又大幅上升，从1997年的1078亿美元上升到1669亿美元。1999年和2000年逆差更是以年均约1000亿美元的可怕的速度扩大，到2000年逆差达到3787亿美元。2001年逆差有小幅回落，降至3583亿美元。但是，2002年美国的贸易逆差又开始扩大，从美国商务部公布的数据来看，2002年前三个季度商品和服务贸易逆差达3146亿美元，超过上年同期462亿美元，增幅达17%。
从结构上看，自1971年以来，美国一直是服务贸易的顺差国，虽然近年来稍有下降，但到2001年仍然有689亿美元的服务贸易顺差。服务贸易顺差缩小也是美国贸易逆差扩大的原因之一。2002年前三个季度，美国服务贸易顺差为346亿美元，比上年同期减少199亿美元，减少幅度达36%，占美国同期贸易逆差扩大额的43%。也就是说，2002年前三个季度美国贸易逆差扩大462亿美元，其中有43%来自于服务贸易顺差的减少。当然，美国的贸易逆差主要还是来自于商品贸易。2002年前三个季度美国商品贸易逆差达3493亿美元，比上年同期增加264亿美元，增幅为8%，占同期逆差扩大额的57%。
二、美国贸易逆差的美元汇率因素
 
作为调节国际收支平衡的主要工具，在考察造成贸易逆差的原因时，汇率无疑应该成为其首选因素。美元从1982年到1985年经历了一次大幅度升值，随后从1986年到1989年经历了一次严重贬值。考虑到时滞的影响，美元实际有效汇率的变动正好与80年代美国贸易逆差的变动相吻合。1982年到1985年的美元升值导致了美国1983年到1987年的贸易逆差急剧扩大，而1986年到1989年的美元贬值又导致了美国1987年到1991年贸易逆差的缩小。�
令人困惑的是，1993年和1994年美元没有明显的升值，甚至还是在被严重低估的情况下，贸易逆差却突然大规模增加。可见，美元汇率并非影响贸易差额的惟一因素。但1998年到2000年贸易逆差扩大似乎又可以从美元汇率的变动上找到原因，其间美元实际有效汇率回到100并开始上涨，美元又重被高估。由此，我们很容易理解2002年的美元贬值政策，并且可以预计，美元还将继续贬值。

Answer 1

At the beginning of 2002, the U.S. dollar against major currencies depreciated began, up to December 20, 2002, the depreciation of the dollar against the euro reached 15 percent, the yen depreciated by 8%. Depreciation of the dollar have a profound political and economic background, but the most fundamental reason is that the massive U.S. trade deficit for many years caused by the devaluation pressure. The U.S. trade deficit has been the size of its economic structure has undergone major changes. Concerned about the U.S. trade deficit problem, to understand the trend of the future and the U.S. dollar external political and economic policy changes is of great strategic significance.
First, the U.S. trade deficit with the history and status quo
After"World War II" the U.S. trade deficit first appeared in 1968, although in the 1970s has experienced the impact of the oil crisis, and in 1976 began to emerge from continuing to the present trade deficit, but it was not until 1983, the U.S. trade deficit to become U.S. ruling and opposition parties and the focus of attention of all countries in the world, was only as a "problem" for discussion.after
In 1983 the United States the most prominent problem is that foreign investment can not make up for the return to net income of the foreign trade deficit in goods and services trade deficit from 1982's 24.2 billion U.S. dollars rose to 57.8 billion U.S. dollars, while foreign investment from 1982 net income of 352 Only 100 million U.S. dollars to 36.4 billion U.S. dollars. The United States from a net capital flows from abroad into a net inflow of capital. Since then, the U.S. trade deficit continued to widen, 1987 reached 151.7 billion U.S. dollars. In 1988 the U.S. trade deficit started to decline, to 1991, the deficit back to the level of 31.1 billion U.S. dollars. But from 1992 onwards, its trade deficit also was expanding trend. 1993 and 1994 trade deficit to an annual average of about 30 billion U.S. dollars to expand the speed, the 1994 deficit amounted to 96.7 billion U.S. dollars. After three years the deficit slowly increasing, in 1998 also increased substantially, from 1997's 107.8 billion U.S. dollars rose to 166.9 billion U.S. dollars. 1999 and 2000 is an annual deficit of more about 100 billion U.S. dollars to expand the terrible speed, the 2000 deficit to reach 378.7 billion U.S. dollars. 2001 trade deficit has come down slightly, to 358.3 billion U.S. dollars. However, in 2002 the U.S. trade deficit also expanded, from the U.S. Commerce Department said the data, in 2002 the first three quarters of goods and services trade deficit reached 314.6 billion U.S. dollars, over the same period last year 46.2 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 17% .
From the structure, since 1971, the United States has been a favorable balance of trade in services, despite a slight decline in recent years, but there are still 2001 to 68.9 billion U.S. dollars trade surplus in services. Services trade surplus is shrinking U.S. trade deficit widened one of the reasons. The first three quarters of 2002, the U.S. services trade surplus was 34.6 billion U.S. dollars, less than the same period last year 19.9 billion U.S. dollars, reducing the rate of 36 percent of the total U.S. trade deficit widened over the same period the amount of 43%. In other words, in 2002 the first three quarters of the U.S. trade deficit widened 46.2 billion U.S. dollars, of which 43 percent comes from the reduction in services trade surplus. Of course, the U.S. trade deficit mainly from the merchandise trade. In 2002 the first three quarters of the U.S. merchandise trade deficit amounted to 349.3 billion U.S. dollars over the same period last year 26.4 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of eight percent, accounting for the same period deficit to expand the amount of 57%.
Second, the U.S. trade due to deficit with the U.S. dollar
Regulating the international balance of payments as the main tool in the study of the reasons for the trade deficit, exchange rate should be no doubt of their choice factors. Dollars from 1982 to 1985 experienced a significant revaluation, and then from 1986 to 1989 experienced a serious devaluation. Taking into account the impact of delay, the dollar real effective exchange rate movements coincided with the 1980s changes in the U.S. trade deficit in line. 1982 to 1985 the dollar has led to the United States in 1983 to 1987 the trade deficit expanded dramatically, while 1986 to 1989 the depreciation of the dollar also led to the United States in 1987 to 1991 the trade deficit narrowing.
Puzzling, 1993 and 1994 there was no obvious dollar appreciation, or even been seriously underestimated in the circumstances, the massive trade deficit has suddenly increased. Clearly, the dollar exchange rate impact on the trade balance is not the only factor. But 1998 to 2000 trade deficit widened appears to be from the U.S. dollar found on the reasons for the change, during which real effective exchange rate of dollars back to 100 and start up, the dollar is overvalued again. Therefore, it is easy to understand in 2002 the depreciation of the dollar policy, and it can be expected, the dollar will continue to be devalued.

Answer 2

In 2002 the beginning, US dollar started to each main currency to depreciate, cuts off 2002 December 20, US dollar reaches 15% to a euro depreciation, reached 8% to a Japanese Yen depreciation.US dollar depreciation has the profound political economical background, but the most basic reason lies in US to continue the depreciation pressure which many year large-scale trade deficit creates.The US trade deficit scale great already caused its economical pattern to have the tremendous change.Pays attention to US's trade deficit question, future US dollar trend and the American foreign politics economic policy change will have the extremely important strategic sense regarding the understanding.
After first, the US trade deficit history and the present situation

“World War II” US's trade deficit appeared most early in 1968, in 70's although has experienced the petroleum crisis impact, and starts from 1976 to appear continues to the present trade deficit, but until 1983, US's trade deficit question only then became the American government and the people and the various countries attention focal point, only then is regarded as “the question” to discuss.
In 1983 the American most prominent question was the foreign investment the net income backflow cannot make up the foreign trade trade deficit, the commodity and the service trade deficit from 1982 24,200,000,000 US dollars rises to 57,800,000,000 US dollars, but the foreign investment the net income only increased from 1982 35,200,000,000 US dollars to 36,400,000,000 US dollars.US henceforth becomes capital net current by a capital net current study abroad to enter the country.Hereafter, the US trade deficit expands continually, in 1987 amounted to 151,700,000,000 US dollars.In 1988 US's trade deficit started to drop, to 1991, the trade deficit returned to 31,100,000,000 US dollars levels.But started from 1992, its trade deficit assumed the expanded tendency.In 1993 and in 1994 the trade deficit by the yearly average 30,000,000,000 US dollar speed expansions, in 1994 the trade deficit amounted to 96,700,000,000 US dollars approximately.Hereafter three years trade deficit increases slowly, in 1998 also was large rises, rose from 1997 107,800,000,000 US dollars to 166,900,000,000 US dollars.In 1999 and in 2000 the trade deficit was by the yearly average approximately 100,000,000,000 US dollar fearful speed expansions, the trade deficit amounted to 378,700,000,000 US dollars to 2000.In 2001 the trade deficit had the small scale to recede, falls to 358,300,000,000 US dollars.But, in 2002 US's trade deficit started to expand, announced the data from American Department of commercial affairs to look, in 2002 ago three quarter commodity and the service trade deficit amounted to 314,600,000,000 US dollars, surpassed same time last year 46,200,000,000 US dollars, the increased range reaches 17%.
Structurally speaking, since 1971, US always has been the service trade favorable balance country, although the recent years has the drop slightly, but still has 68,900,000,000 US dollar service trade surplus to 2001.The service trade surplus reduces also is one of reasons which the US trade deficit expands.In 2002 ago three quarters, the American service trade surplus was 34,600,000,000 US dollars, reduced 19,900,000,000 US dollars compared to the same time last year, reduced the scope to reach 36%, occupied US the trade deficit to expand the large quantity same time 43%.In other words, in 2002 ago three quarter US trade deficit expanded 46,200,000,000 US dollars, including 43% to come from the service trade surplus reduction.Certainly, US's trade deficit mainly comes from the commodity trade.In 2002 ago three quarter US commodity trade deficit amounted to 349,300,000,000 US dollars, increased 26,400,000,000 US dollars compared to the same time last year, the increased range is 8%, accounted for the same time trade deficit to expand the large quantity 57%.
Second, the US trade deficit US dollar exchange rate factor

took the adjustment international balanced revenues and expenditures the main tool, creates the trade deficit when the inspection the reason, the exchange rate without doubt should become its first choice factor.US dollar has experienced a large scale revaluation from 1982 to 1985, afterwards has experienced a serious depreciation from 1986 to 1989.Considered the time lag the influence, US dollar actual effective exchange rate change happen to tallies with the 80's US trade deficit change.Caused US 1982 to 1985 US dollar revaluation to expand suddenly 1983 to 1987 trade deficit, but has caused US 1986 to 1989 US dollar depreciation 1987 to 1991 the trade deficit reduction.??
confusing is, in 1993 and in 1994 US dollar not obvious revaluation, even in the situation which underestimated seriously, the trade deficit suddenly massively increases actually.Obviously, US dollar exchange rate affects the balance of trade by no means the only factor.But the trade deficit expanded 1998 to 2000 as if may find the reason from in US dollar exchange rate change, during US dollar actual effective exchange rate returned to 100 and starts to rise, US dollar overestimates again.From this, we very easy to understand 2002 US dollar depreciation policy, and might estimate, US dollar will also continue to depreciate.本回答被提问者采纳

Answer 3

The Yi starts in 2002 and USD starts depreciate to each main currency, close till December 20, 2002 and USD reaches to 15% to the euro depreciation and reach to 8% to the yen depreciation.USD depreciation contains deep political economic background, but the most basic reason lie in the depreciation pressure that the large-scale unfavorable balance of trade that the United States keeps on for several years result in.American unfavorable balance of trade scale of greatly have already make it the economic structure and form took place graveness variety.Pay attention to the unfavorable balance of trade problem of the United States, to understanding the trend of USD and the variety of outward political economic policy in the United States will have very important strategic meaning in the future.
A, the history and present condition of American unfavorable balance of trade

The unfavorable balance of trade of the United States was appear in 1968 at the earliest stage after"two wars", in the 70's although experienced the impact of petroleum crisis, and have appear since 1976 keep on to the unfavorable balance of trade in nowadays, until 1983, American unfavorable balance of trade problem just become the focus that American government and people and international community pay attention to, was just seen to a "problem" to discuss.
American most outstanding problem is the clean income reflux which outward invests and can't make up foreign trade unfavorable variance in 1983, merchandise kimono duty the unfavorable balance of trade rises to USD 57,800,000,000 from USD 24,200,000,000 in 1982, but outward invests of the clean income only increases to USD 36,400,000,000 from USD 35,200,000,000 in 1982.The United States from now on changes in to°from a run off country with clean capital an inflow country with clean capital.Henceforth, the American unfavorable balance of trade keeps on extension and attain USD 151,700,000,000 in 1987.The unfavorable balance of trade of 1988 United States starts descend, to 1991, the unfavorable variance returns to the level of USD 31,100,000,000 again.But since 1992, its unfavorable balance of trade presents extension trend again.The speed which all is about USD 30,000,000,000 by year with 1994 unfavorable balance of trade in 1993 extend and the unfavorable variance amounts to USD 96,700,000,000 in 1994.Henceforth three year the unfavorable variance slow-moving aggrandizement, in 1998 again significantly rise, rises to from USD 107,800,000,000 in 1997 USD 166,900,000,000.All is about USD 100,000,000,000 by year more with 2000 unfavorable variance in 1999 of terrible of the speed extend and attain USD 378,700,000,000 to 2000 unfavorable variance.The unfavorable variance has a small to drop in 2001 and decline to USD 358,300,000,000.But, the unfavorable balance of trade of 2002 United States again start extend, announce from the American commerce department of data to see, the duty unfavorable balance of trade of 2002 year agos merchandise kimono of three quarters degree amounts to USD 314,600,000,000, exceed last year the same period be USD 46,200,000,000 and increase to reach to 17%.
See from the structure, since 1971, the United States has been the surplus country which serves trade, although have a little bit to descend in recent years, still have the trade surplus of the service of USD 68,900,000,000 till 2001.Service trade surplus' contract is also one of the reason that the American unfavorable balance of trade extend.2002 the year agos three quarters degree, the American service trade surplus is USD 34,600,000,000, compare last year the same period reduce USD 19,900,000,000, reduce range to reach to 36% and have American same period unfavorable balance of trade extension is 43% of the sum.Be also say, 2002 year agos American unfavorable balance of trade of three quarters degree extend USD 46,200,000,000 and have 43% to come from service trade the decrease of the surplus among them.Certainly, the unfavorable balance of trade of the United States mainly still keeps coming from merchandise trade.2002 year agos American merchandise unfavorable balance of trade of three quarters degree amount to USD 349,300,000,000, compare the last year same period to increase USD 26,400,000,000, increase as 8% and share the unfavorable variance extension of same period 57% of the sum.
Two, the dollar rate factor of American unfavorable balance of trade

Conduct and actions regulates the main tool of balance of payments, at the investigation result in the reason of unfavorable balance of trade, the rate of exchange doubtless should become its head to choose a factor.USD experienced a significant appreciation from 1982-1985 years and experienced a severity depreciation from 1986-1989 years later on.Consideration by that time the influence of the Zhi, the fluctuation of USD physically valid rate of exchange at the right moment mutually fits together in 80's with the fluctuation of American unfavorable balance of trade.The USD appreciation for 1982-1985 years caused the unfavorable balance of trade of the United States 1983-1987 years sharply extend, but USD depreciation for 1986-1989 years caused again the United States for 1987-1991 years, contract of unfavorable balance of trade.�
Make what person baffle BE, don't have obvious appreciation with 1994 USD in 1993, even be still under the sistuation that is underrate seriously, but the unfavorable balance of trade be suddenly large-scale to increase.It is thus clear that, the dollar rate doesn't influence the only one factor of balance of trade.But 1998-2000 year the unfavorable balance of trade extension seem to be and can find out reason from the fluctuation of dollar rate, in the interval USD physically the valid rate of exchange return to 100 and start soar, USD again heavy is overestimate.From here, we very easily comprehend that USD depreciate a policy for 2002 years, and can anticipate and USD will also continue to depreciate.

Answer 4

太难了

Answer 5

这也太难了吧？？