But automotive engineering will hit a wall: the American love of weight and power. It isn’t only drivers who have been getting fatter in this country. Average engine horsepower has bulked up by 84 percent since 1981, offsetting the engine’s efficiency gains, while average vehicle weight in the U.S. has risen by more than 20 percent in two decades. One argument the auto industry has used against higher corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards is that such higher standards would require making vehicles lighter, leaving them less safe in collisions. This position puts General Motors, for one, in an awkward spot. Taking the lead among its Detroit brethren in fuel cell research, GM has promised to bring hydrogen- powered vehicles to market by 2010, but it’s unlikely that these vehicles will have adequate range unless and until they are made from lightweight materials.
Thus, I boldly venture this near-term prediction: In the next decade, polymer-composite materials, particularly those reinforced with carbon fiber, will emerge from niche manufacturing to be used widely as a structural material. According to a study by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, carbon-composite body construction could reduce vehicle weight by 40 to 65 percent. The new Ford GT is aluminum through and through and accelerates from 0 to 60 in 3.3 seconds, yet the two-seat sportscar weighs more than 3,400 pounds. Think what it would do if it weighed 1,700 pounds.
Carbon-fiber composites are already used in golf clubs, bicycles and jetliners, but there are technological challenges to employing them in cars, chief among them the slow, costly, labor-intensive process of laying up carbon-fiber composites and curing them piece by piece in autoclaves.
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