KEY ISSUE: Strategic planning of logistics infrastructure in the YDR generally under-estimates market demands.
The extent and speed of change in Shanghai and the YDR over the last 20 years – and China’s rapid emergence as a major player in global trade – could not have been easily predicted. Nonetheless, the YDR’s trajectory in global trade has been clearly set since the start of this decade. Major transport infrastructure – ports, airports, railways, and expressways – takes several years to plan, design, and build, making demand assessments critical. Strategic planning for much of the logistics infrastructure in the YDR is generally characterized by: 1) under-estimation in initial demand assessments; 2) the absence of mechanisms to update demand assessments in the course of a project’s cycle and to incorporate new demands into project re-design; 3) inadequate acquisition and sharing between agencies of demand related information; and 4) insufficient coordination between sectoral planners and agencies (ie. rail, ports, roads, air cargo) in planning of infrastructure projects.
A major difficulty for planners is lack of information on the origins, destinations, and characteristics of transport movements in the YDR. There is virtually no current and reliable information available on traffic flows by transport modes. This contrasts sharply with the availability of such information in the EU and in North America (Fig. 18).